Moving the Consumer Market to LEDs is Beyond Numbers
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The pipe dream for more than a few start-ups and venture backed efforts is that some magic LED product will emerge that transforms an estimated trillion Edison sockets to LEDs, representing millions in profits.
Ignoring the inflated numbers, the real issue of residential transformation will require a significant change in the attitudes of consumers. A continued emphasis on first cost, and very low visibility of the actual energy used for lighting, coupled with relatively low energy costs, conspire to put energy efficiency in residential lighting on a very low priority level. The reality is, relative to other costs most homeowners shoulder, from cell phones to cable/dish TV, and fuel to keep lumbering SUVs motoring to the local burger joint, the cost of energy for lighting is somewhat inconsequential. Couple this with the soft economy and even softer real estate market, and the picture is not pretty.
Focus on energy efficiency alone will not turn the residential market as a whole. Codes and legislation will only impact those within the reach of such activities, and requires a very long period of time to snare enough of the market to realize any significant change in demand.
There is no single solution to press the residential market forward, no magic bullets, and no easy solutions. However, one truth needs to be more fully recognized by those who wish to see real change: People rarely change behavior through rational, objective reasoning. From smoking to obesity, forcing change by force of logic is a failure more often than not. Even among those who realize energy conservation is reasonable and desirable, change is often put off to avoid the initial cost involved.
The slow adoption of the CFL lamp is so often discussed based on logic and reason, that we can all be excused for ignoring the real reason we did not jump at these lamps - their is no perception of a need to save energy, and the cost of the lamps, even today, are much higher than the available alternatives of halogen or incandescent. Now, add to this that fluorescent, by its very nature, even when perfectly applied, is not as nice to live with as incandescent in a home, and the reputation of fluorescent as being a commercial source, causing headaches and eyestrain in the office and factory, one can see that issues of CFL slow adoption are well founded in perception - which is more important than reality.
This brings us to SSL and LEDs. At this time, the perception of need for energy saving remains just as low as it has been. The concern over global climate change is declining, as is interest in any legislative intrusion in our lives overall. Low fuel prices, relatively slow inflation of electrical energy costs, and a sluggish economy conspire to draw attention away from the perception that spending money to save a few watts at home is a priority.
Where the perception exists that LEDs are cool, or where there are pockets of markets of individuals who embrace conservation as a "moral" obligation, there are success stories emerging. The trick in moving LEDs into a broader market scale is mainstreaming this approach and perception. This will happen only when the consumer market embraces energy conservation with the same level of priority as they do cell phone coverage.
If we as a community only hammer at the market with threats of impending federal action, mandates, bans, and strong arm objective reasoning, we will rapidly move LEDs from the cool category to the decidedly uncool, perceived to be part of the larger concern that the government and corporate thieves around us seem bent on making us do what they want to serve their own agendas - which none of us like, except for the few who are on boards seeking exactly this result.
If we build on building the perception that having LED lighting is cool, that the products are in some way better than cheaper alternatives, and that having LEDs in the home is cooler than continuing to use antique incandescent sources, we can realize a faster rate of adoption and acceptance beyond any rational ROI analysis will ever predict. People pay for cool, attractive new products, that make them feel good about the value they are getting. From the i-everything movement, to motorcycles, tattoos and alloy wheels with dual exhaust on economy cars... coolness is the foundation of more transformations than logical reason.
The goal should not be to realize replacement of trillions of old lamps, but the widespread, enthusiastic use of LEDs as a desirable value that displaces the desire to spend limited resources elsewhere. This means looking well beyond existing sockets, and deep into where we as consumers are placing our priorities and value perceptions. Failing this, the residential market will be a very long and drawn out effort, that will not likely produce but a small percentage of the desire end results being predicted in current investment justifications.
KLW
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